Pattern of violence in North East

We still don’t know how ‘landmark’ the landmark Naga peace accord will turn out to be, as NE watchers like Bibhu Routray have pointed out. However, what we do know is that the Indian government has done a good job at reducing violence in the region in the past decade. Looking at stats from the authoritative SATP, it becomes clear that after a peak of more than 1000 insurgency*-related deaths in each of the years 2007 and 2008, the numbers have less than halved.

Most NE watchers, as well as the MHA, still like to classify violence in the seven sisters as ‘insurgency’, though a more granular look at the data shows this is only partially true, depending on the respective states. As per a noted journalist who’s reported from NE for nearly 3 decades, the percentage of civilian deaths in Assam show that at least some insurgent groups there have “morphed” into terrorist groups. The journalist and another researcher from IDSA drove home the point that Naga insurgents had largely stayed true to their oath, avoiding targeting of civilians. The journalist also stressed that post the 1997 ceasefire, most deaths in Nagaland had come from inter-group rivalries. Deaths of insurgents accounted for nearly 75% (430 out of 551) of total insurgency-related deaths in Nagaland. The journalist’s claim about inter-gang rivalries seems true, since the unusually high ratio of deaths of insurgents to that of security personnel (nearly 40:1) for Nagaland suggests that killing insurgents might not have been the handiwork of security forces alone.

*A researcher from IDSA informed me that terrorism and insurgency were distinguished on the basis of the motive and expanse of their targets. While the former indulges in mass-killings with only a vague motive, the latter avoids mindless killings of civilians, with the attacks having a clear-cut motive.