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Tuesday, 23 August 2016

Possible foul play in 2013 Delhi elections, and systemic rot in Indian elections

I wrote this story for Mint, around the time of last Delhi Assembly elections which were swept by AAP. The story is based on 2013 elections, in which AAP and BJP secured 28 and 31 seats, respectively. It brings out how the party might have lost two seats because of what could have been foul play - in this case deliberate use of an election symbol, named 'Battery Torch', very similar to the party's Broom.

Mint decided not to publish it, so I am putting it here. The peg is India Today's recent investigation (http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/uttar-pradesh-assembly-elections-dummy-candidates-india-today-expose/1/746207.html) that reveals similar systemic rot. The story below reads very newspaper-y, for obvious reasons.

Below are photos of the two symbols - the fake 'Battery Torch' and AAP's Broom.



   



Story:

If you were an AAP supporter during the previous Delhi assembly elections, you have reason to be worried, for you might just have unwittingly voted your party out of power, in at least two seats.

But how could you have ever committed the grave error of mistakenly voting for another party? It’s because an election symbol bearing uncanny resemblance to AAP’s symbol – the Broom – was doing the rounds in the previous Delhi election. It is noteworthy that the EVM does not carry the name of the party, only increasing the likelihood of such a mistake.

Later, the symbol’s capability to trick AAP voters was taken into cognizance even by EC, which ordered its modification for the upcoming election.


Adoption of the Torch symbol


The fact that this symbol was adopted not by a party but by different independent candidates in as many as 29 out of 70 constituencies in the capital, should raise still more eyebrows. The next most widely adopted symbol - cup and saucer - was adopted in only 12 constituencies.

However, before overenthusiastic supporters jump to castigate political rivals for foul play, it is necessary to know how election symbols are allotted to independent candidates. Besides the symbols reserved for national and state parties, the EC has a set of 'free symbols' which are reserved for independent candidates as well as those from lesser known parties. These candidates are then expected to indicate their top three preferences from among free symbols, and in case of clashes, the final allotment is done on lottery basis.

Elaborating on the issue, a former Chief Election Commissioner (whose name I've removed because the story isn't for Mint anymore), said that erroneous voting due to similar-looking symbols had indeed been a problem in the past. He, however, added that EC had always been flexible about modifying such symbols on the basis of any genuine complaint received, since not doing so would be an impediment to free and fair elections. Sometimes, EC would also give its nod to symbols demanded by candidates, if these were found acceptable. Talking about the time when over 1000 candidates contested from Modakurichi constituency in TN, he recalled how a judicious choice of symbols could be a real headache for EC.

He also mentioned that despite EC's best efforts to minimise confusion among voters, usage of dummy candidates with similar names and symbols had been a favourite modus operandi of political parties to cut into their rivals' vote share. He cited the example of Kuldeep Bishnoi, who, while contesting from Hisar, faced several namesakes.



Votes polled by the symbol




While it’s difficult to establish whether the widespread adoption of Battery Torch was politically motivated, numbers from the above graph make clear that it was successful in diverting votes away from AAP.

The percentage of votes polled by Battery Torch (2.4%) was higher than that by some of the established parties, and far higher any other symbol used by independent candidates, except ‘Glass Tumbler’ (1.6%, not shown in the graph). However, this is only because a very eminent candidate adopted it and went on to win the constituency of Mundka. In case of Battery Torch, the high number of votes polled by it does not come from one popular candidate, but from an even sprinkling of votes polled by hitherto unknown candidates, none of whom came even remotely close to winning. This points to a robust chance that AAP’s voters mistakenly voted for the Battery Torch.

Did it really make a difference?




How much did the Battery Torch hurt AAP? Assuming most votes going to this symbol were originally intended for AAP, the party lost two seats – Kalkaji and Janakpuri – because of this diversion. In both these constituencies, BJP was the eventual winner. In two others, as shown in the graph, Battery Torch needed to fox only a few more voters to turn the tables against AAP, but the party scraped through to victory.

Had Kalkaji and Janakpuri gone to AAP, it would have emerged as the single largest party with 30 seats, whereas BJP’s tally would have dropped to 29.


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